Subseasonal prediction of Wintertime East Asian temperature based on atmospheric teleconnections

Changhyun Yoo, Nathaniel C. Johnson, Chueh Hsin Chang, Steven B. Feldstein, Young Ha Kim

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

2 Scopus citations

Abstract

A composite-based statistical model utilizing Northern Hemisphere teleconnection patterns is developed to predict East Asian wintertime surface air temperature for lead times out to 6 weeks. The level of prediction is determined by using the Heidke skill score. The prediction skill of the statistical model is compared with that of hindcast simulations by a climate model, Global Seasonal Forecast System, version 5. When employed individually, three teleconnections (i.e., the east Atlantic/western Russian, Scandinavian, and polar/Eurasian teleconnection patterns) are found to provide skillful predictions for lead times beyond 4-5 weeks. When information from the teleconnections and the long-term linear trend are combined, the statistical model outperforms the climate model for lead times beyond 3 weeks, especially during those times when the teleconnections are in their active phases.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)9351-9366
Number of pages16
JournalJournal of Climate
Volume31
Issue number22
DOIs
StatePublished - Nov 1 2018

All Science Journal Classification (ASJC) codes

  • Atmospheric Science

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