Synchrony, waves, and spatial hierarchies in the spread of influenza

Cécile Viboud, Ottar N. Bjørnstad, David L. Smith, Lone Simonsen, Mark A. Miller, Bryan T. Grenfell

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

451 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

Quantifying long-range dissemination of infectious diseases is a key issue in their dynamics and control. Here, we use influenza-related mortality data to analyze the between-state progression of interpandemic influenza in the United States over the past 30 years. Outbreaks show hierarchical spatial spread evidenced by higher pairwise synchrony between more populous states. Seasons with higher influenza mortality are associated with higher disease transmission and more rapid spread than are mild ones. The regional spread of infection correlates more closely with rates of movement of people to and from their workplaces (workflows) than with geographical distance. Workflows are described in turn by a gravity model, with a rapid decay of commuting up to around 100 km and a long tail of rare longer range flow. A simple epidemiological model, based on the gravity formulation, captures the observed increase of influenza spatial synchrony with transmissibility; high transmission allows influenza to spread rapidly beyond local spatial constraints.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)447-451
Number of pages5
JournalScience
Volume312
Issue number5772
DOIs
StatePublished - Apr 21 2006

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Human Influenza
Workflow
Gravitation
Mortality
Workplace
Disease Outbreaks
Communicable Diseases
Infection

All Science Journal Classification (ASJC) codes

  • General

Cite this

Viboud, C., Bjørnstad, O. N., Smith, D. L., Simonsen, L., Miller, M. A., & Grenfell, B. T. (2006). Synchrony, waves, and spatial hierarchies in the spread of influenza. Science, 312(5772), 447-451. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1125237
Viboud, Cécile ; Bjørnstad, Ottar N. ; Smith, David L. ; Simonsen, Lone ; Miller, Mark A. ; Grenfell, Bryan T. / Synchrony, waves, and spatial hierarchies in the spread of influenza. In: Science. 2006 ; Vol. 312, No. 5772. pp. 447-451.
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Viboud, C, Bjørnstad, ON, Smith, DL, Simonsen, L, Miller, MA & Grenfell, BT 2006, 'Synchrony, waves, and spatial hierarchies in the spread of influenza', Science, vol. 312, no. 5772, pp. 447-451. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1125237

Synchrony, waves, and spatial hierarchies in the spread of influenza. / Viboud, Cécile; Bjørnstad, Ottar N.; Smith, David L.; Simonsen, Lone; Miller, Mark A.; Grenfell, Bryan T.

In: Science, Vol. 312, No. 5772, 21.04.2006, p. 447-451.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

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Viboud C, Bjørnstad ON, Smith DL, Simonsen L, Miller MA, Grenfell BT. Synchrony, waves, and spatial hierarchies in the spread of influenza. Science. 2006 Apr 21;312(5772):447-451. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1125237