The evolution of hail production in simulated supercell storms

Hailstorms pose a significant socioeconomic risk, necessitating detailed assessments of how the hail threat changes throughout their lifetimes. Hail production involves the favorable juxtaposition of ingredients, but how storm evolution affects these ingredients is unknown, limiting understanding of how hail production evolves. Unfortunately, neither surface hail reports nor radar-based swath estimates have adequate resolution or details needed to assess evolving hail production. Instead, we use a novel approach of coupling a detailed hail trajectory model to idealized convective storm simulations to better understand storm evolution's influence on hail production. Hail production varies substantially throughout storms' mature phases: maximum sizes vary by a factor of 2 and the concentration of severe hail by more than fivefold during 45-60-min periods. This variability arises from changes in updraft properties, which come from (i) changes in low-level convergence and (ii) internal storm dynamics, including anticyclonic vortex shedding/storm splitting, and the response of the updraft's airflow and supercooled liquid water content to these events. Hodograph shape strongly affects such behaviors. Straighter hodographs lead to more prolific hail production through wider updrafts and weaker mesocyclones and a periodicity in hail size metrics associated with anticyclonic vortex shedding and/or storm splitting. In contrast, a curved hodograph (favorable for tornadoes) led to a storm with a stronger but more compact updraft, which occasionally produced giant (10-cm) hail but that was a less-prolific severe hail producer overall. Unless storms are adequately sampled throughout their life cycles, snapshots from ground reports will insufficiently resolve the true nature of hail production.