The Intrinsic Estimator, Alternative Estimates, and Predictions of Mortality Trends: A Comment on Masters, Hummer, Powers, Beck, Lin, and Finch

Manfred te Grotenhuis, Ben Pelzer, Liying Luo, Alexander W. Schmidt-Catran

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

11 Scopus citations

Abstract

In this article, we discuss a study by Masters et al. (2014), published in Demography. Masters and associates estimated age, period, and cohort (APC) effects on U.S. mortality rates between 1959 and 2009 using the intrinsic estimator (IE). We first argue that before applying the IE, a grounded theoretical justification is needed for its fundamental constraint on minimum variance of the estimates. We next demonstrate IE’s high sensitivity to the type of dummy parameterization used to obtain the estimates. Finally, we discuss challenges in the interpretation of APC models. Our comments are not restricted to the article in question but pertain generally to any research that uses the IE.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)1245-1252
Number of pages8
JournalDemography
Volume53
Issue number4
DOIs
StatePublished - Aug 1 2016

All Science Journal Classification (ASJC) codes

  • Demography

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