@article{ee7df7ad1b8648bc83dac42bdb76f74b,
title = "The polar regions in a 2°C warmer world",
abstract = "Over the past decade, the Arctic has warmed by 0.75°C, far outpacing the global average, while Antarctic temperatures have remained comparatively stable. As Earth approaches 2°C warming, the Arctic and Antarctic may reach 4°C and 2°C mean annual warming, and 7°C and 3°C winter warming, respectively. Expected consequences of increased Arctic warming include ongoing loss of land and sea ice, threats to wildlife and traditional human livelihoods, increased methane emissions, and extreme weather at lower latitudes. With low biodiversity, Antarctic ecosystems may be vulnerable to state shifts and species invasions. Land ice loss in both regions will contribute substantially to global sea level rise, with up to 3 m rise possible if certain thresholds are crossed. Mitigation efforts can slow or reduce warming, but without them northern high latitude warming may accelerate in the next two to four decades. International cooperation will be crucial to foreseeing and adapting to expected changes.",
author = "Eric Post and Alley, {Richard B.} and Christensen, {Torben R.} and Marc Macias-Fauria and Forbes, {Bruce C.} and Gooseff, {Michael N.} and Amy Iler and Kerby, {Jeffrey T.} and Laidre, {Kristin L.} and Mann, {Michael E.} and Johan Olofsson and Stroeve, {Julienne C.} and Fran Ulmer and Virginia, {Ross A.} and Muyin Wang",
note = "Funding Information: We thank H. Levy, R. Dunbar, and anonymous reviewers for helpful comments and discussion. Funding: Funding was provided by grants from the U.S. National Science Foundation (NSF OPP 1738934 to R.B.A., NSF OPP 1637708 to M.N.G. and R.A.V., and NSF OPP 1748052 and NSF OPP 1836774 to E.P.), the Academy of Finland (decision no. 256991) and JPI Climate (no. 291581) (to B.C.F), the National Geographic Society (CP-061R-17 to J.T.K.), the Natural Environment Research Council (NE/L011859/1 to M.M.-F.), the Swedish Research Council (2017-04515 to J.O.), the U.S. National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA grant NNX16AJ92G S03 to J.C.S.), and the Joint Institute for the Study of the Atmosphere and Ocean (JISAO) under the U.S. National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA cooperative agreement NA15OAR4320063, contribution no. 2018-0181) and the NOAA Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory (contribution no. 4900) (to M.W.). Author Publisher Copyright: Copyright {\textcopyright} 2019 The Authors.",
year = "2019",
month = dec,
day = "4",
doi = "10.1126/sciadv.aaw9883",
language = "English (US)",
volume = "5",
journal = "Science advances",
issn = "2375-2548",
publisher = "American Association for the Advancement of Science",
number = "12",
}