The role of unresolved clouds on short-range global horizontal irradiance predictability

Pedro A. Jiménez, Stefano Alessandrini, Sue Ellen Haupt, Aijun Deng, Branko Kosovic, Jared A. Lee, Luca Delle Monache

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

23 Scopus citations

Abstract

The shortwave radiative impacts of unresolved cumulus clouds are investigated using 6-h ensemble simulations performed with the WRF-Solar Model and high-quality observations over the contiguous United States for a 1-yr period. The ensembles use the stochastic kinetic energy backscatter scheme (SKEBS) to account for implicit model uncertainty. Results indicate that parameterizing the radiative effects of both deep and shallow cumulus clouds is necessary to largely reduce (55%) a systematic overprediction of the global horizontal irradiance. Accounting for the model's effective resolution is necessary to mitigate the underdispersive nature of the ensemble and provide meaningful quantification of the short-range prediction uncertainties.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)3099-3107
Number of pages9
JournalMonthly Weather Review
Volume144
Issue number9
DOIs
StatePublished - 2016

All Science Journal Classification (ASJC) codes

  • Atmospheric Science

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