The stochastic modeling of purchase intentions and behavior

Martin R. Young, Wayne Desarbo, Vicki G. Morwitz

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

59 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

A common objective of social science and business research is the modeling of the relationship between demographic / psychographic characteristics of individuals and the likelihood of certain behaviors for these same individuals. Frequently, data on actual behavior are unavailable; rather, one has available only the self-reported intentions of the individual. If the reported intentions imperfectly predict actual behavior, then any model of behavior based on the intention data should account for the associated measurement error, or else the resulting predictions will be biased. In this paper, we provide a method for analyzing intentions data that explicitly models the discrepancy between reported intention and behavior, thus facilitating a less biased assessment of the impact of designated covariates on actual behavior. The application examined here relates to modeling relationships between demographic characteristics and actual purchase behavior among consumers. A new Bayesian approach employing the Gibbs sampler is developed and compared to alternative models. We show, through simulated and real data, that, relative to methods that implicitly equate intentions and behavior, the proposed method can increase the accuracy with which purchase response models are estimated.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)188-202
Number of pages15
JournalManagement Science
Volume44
Issue number2
DOIs
StatePublished - Jan 1 1998

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Purchase intention
Purchase behavior
Stochastic modeling
Modeling
Prediction
Alternative models
Business research
Measurement error
Psychographics
Demographics
Discrepancy
Gibbs sampler
Bayesian approach
Social sciences
Covariates
Purchase
Demographic characteristics

All Science Journal Classification (ASJC) codes

  • Strategy and Management
  • Management Science and Operations Research

Cite this

Young, Martin R. ; Desarbo, Wayne ; Morwitz, Vicki G. / The stochastic modeling of purchase intentions and behavior. In: Management Science. 1998 ; Vol. 44, No. 2. pp. 188-202.
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Young, MR, Desarbo, W & Morwitz, VG 1998, 'The stochastic modeling of purchase intentions and behavior', Management Science, vol. 44, no. 2, pp. 188-202. https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.44.2.188

The stochastic modeling of purchase intentions and behavior. / Young, Martin R.; Desarbo, Wayne; Morwitz, Vicki G.

In: Management Science, Vol. 44, No. 2, 01.01.1998, p. 188-202.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

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