Tourism market potential analysis in Botswana: A Delphi study

Erdener Kaynak, Edward E. Marandu

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

45 Scopus citations


This article explores what would be the most probable scenario for the tourism industry in Botswana by the year 2020. A modified Delphi technique was used to generate data from 68 industry experts. The findings show that experts forecast progressively more changes and higher impact as one moves from values, structures, and events. The implication for policy makers and industry operators is that efforts aimed at increasing tourism may prove more fruitful if focused on changing structures and hosting events, rather than changing the values of the people. The study also improves on the understanding of Delphi forecasting behavior. It demonstrates that an expert who is optimistic on one factor - say, values - is likely to perceive the same with regard to other factors such as structure and events.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)227-237
Number of pages11
JournalJournal of Travel Research
Issue number2
StatePublished - Nov 2006

All Science Journal Classification (ASJC) codes

  • Geography, Planning and Development
  • Transportation
  • Tourism, Leisure and Hospitality Management


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