Uncertainty in emissions projections for climate models

Mort D. Webster, M. Babiker, M. Mayer, J. M. Reilly, J. Harnisch, R. Hyman, M. C. Sarofim, C. Wang

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

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Abstract

Future global climate projections are subject to large uncertainties. Major sources of this uncertainty are projections of anthropogenic emissions. We evaluate the uncertainty in future anthropogenic emissions using a computable general equilibrium model of the world economy. Results are simulated through 2100 for carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4), nitrous oxide (N2O), hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs), perfluorocarbons (PFCs) and sulfur hexafluoride (SF6), sulfur dioxide (SO2), black carbon (BC) and organic carbon (OC), nitrogen oxides (NOx), carbon monoxide (CO), ammonia (NH3) and non-methane volatile organic compounds (NMVOCs). We construct mean and upper and lower 95% emissions scenarios (available from the authors at 1°×1° latitude-longitude grid). Using the MIT Integrated Global System Model (IGSM), we find a temperature change range in 2100 of 0.9 to 4.0°C, compared with the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change emissions scenarios that result in a range of 1.3 to 3.6°C when simulated through MIT IGSM.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)3659-3670
Number of pages12
JournalAtmospheric Environment
Volume36
Issue number22
DOIs
StatePublished - Aug 5 2002

Fingerprint

climate modeling
hydrofluorocarbon
computable general equilibrium analysis
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
black carbon
nitrogen oxides
nitrous oxide
sulfur dioxide
carbon monoxide
volatile organic compound
global climate
ammonia
carbon dioxide
methane
organic carbon
sulfur
temperature

All Science Journal Classification (ASJC) codes

  • Environmental Science(all)
  • Atmospheric Science

Cite this

Webster, M. D., Babiker, M., Mayer, M., Reilly, J. M., Harnisch, J., Hyman, R., ... Wang, C. (2002). Uncertainty in emissions projections for climate models. Atmospheric Environment, 36(22), 3659-3670. https://doi.org/10.1016/S1352-2310(02)00245-5
Webster, Mort D. ; Babiker, M. ; Mayer, M. ; Reilly, J. M. ; Harnisch, J. ; Hyman, R. ; Sarofim, M. C. ; Wang, C. / Uncertainty in emissions projections for climate models. In: Atmospheric Environment. 2002 ; Vol. 36, No. 22. pp. 3659-3670.
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Webster, MD, Babiker, M, Mayer, M, Reilly, JM, Harnisch, J, Hyman, R, Sarofim, MC & Wang, C 2002, 'Uncertainty in emissions projections for climate models', Atmospheric Environment, vol. 36, no. 22, pp. 3659-3670. https://doi.org/10.1016/S1352-2310(02)00245-5

Uncertainty in emissions projections for climate models. / Webster, Mort D.; Babiker, M.; Mayer, M.; Reilly, J. M.; Harnisch, J.; Hyman, R.; Sarofim, M. C.; Wang, C.

In: Atmospheric Environment, Vol. 36, No. 22, 05.08.2002, p. 3659-3670.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

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Webster MD, Babiker M, Mayer M, Reilly JM, Harnisch J, Hyman R et al. Uncertainty in emissions projections for climate models. Atmospheric Environment. 2002 Aug 5;36(22):3659-3670. https://doi.org/10.1016/S1352-2310(02)00245-5