Urbanization and humidity shape the intensity of influenza epidemics in U.S. cities

Benjamin D. Dalziel, Stephen Kissler, Julia R. Gog, Cecile Viboud, Ottar N. Bjornstad, C. Jessica E. Metcalf, Bryan T. Grenfell

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

9 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

Influenza epidemics vary in intensity from year to year, driven by climatic conditions and by viral antigenic evolution. However, important spatial variation remains unexplained. Here we show predictable differences in influenza incidence among cities, driven by population size and structure. Weekly incidence data from 603 cities in the United States reveal that epidemics in smaller cities are focused on shorter periods of the influenza season, whereas in larger cities, incidence is more diffuse. Base transmission potential estimated from city-level incidence data is positively correlated with population size and with spatiotemporal organization in population density, indicating a milder response to climate forcing in metropolises. This suggests that urban centers incubate critical chains of transmission outside of peak climatic conditions, altering the spatiotemporal geometry of herd immunity.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)75-79
Number of pages5
JournalScience
Volume362
Issue number6410
DOIs
StatePublished - Oct 5 2018

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Urbanization
Humidity
Human Influenza
Population Density
Incidence
Herd Immunity
Climate
Organizations

All Science Journal Classification (ASJC) codes

  • General

Cite this

Dalziel, B. D., Kissler, S., Gog, J. R., Viboud, C., Bjornstad, O. N., Metcalf, C. J. E., & Grenfell, B. T. (2018). Urbanization and humidity shape the intensity of influenza epidemics in U.S. cities. Science, 362(6410), 75-79. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aat6030
Dalziel, Benjamin D. ; Kissler, Stephen ; Gog, Julia R. ; Viboud, Cecile ; Bjornstad, Ottar N. ; Metcalf, C. Jessica E. ; Grenfell, Bryan T. / Urbanization and humidity shape the intensity of influenza epidemics in U.S. cities. In: Science. 2018 ; Vol. 362, No. 6410. pp. 75-79.
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Dalziel, BD, Kissler, S, Gog, JR, Viboud, C, Bjornstad, ON, Metcalf, CJE & Grenfell, BT 2018, 'Urbanization and humidity shape the intensity of influenza epidemics in U.S. cities', Science, vol. 362, no. 6410, pp. 75-79. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aat6030

Urbanization and humidity shape the intensity of influenza epidemics in U.S. cities. / Dalziel, Benjamin D.; Kissler, Stephen; Gog, Julia R.; Viboud, Cecile; Bjornstad, Ottar N.; Metcalf, C. Jessica E.; Grenfell, Bryan T.

In: Science, Vol. 362, No. 6410, 05.10.2018, p. 75-79.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

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