Using palaeo-climate comparisons to constrain future projections in CMIP5

G. A. Schmidt, J. D. Annan, P. J. Bartlein, B. I. Cook, E. Guilyardi, J. C. Hargreaves, S. P. Harrison, M. Kageyama, A. N. Legrande, B. Konecky, S. Lovejoy, M. E. Mann, V. Masson-Delmotte, C. Risi, D. Thompson, A. Timmermann, P. Yiou

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

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Abstract

We present a selection of methodologies for using the palaeo-climate model component of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (Phase 5) (CMIP5) to attempt to constrain future climate projections using the same models. The constraints arise from measures of skill in hindcasting palaeo-climate changes from the present over three periods: the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) (21 000 yr before present, ka), the mid-Holocene (MH) (6 ka) and the Last Millennium (LM) (850-1850 CE). The skill measures may be used to validate robust patterns of climate change across scenarios or to distinguish between models that have differing outcomes in future scenarios. We find that the multi-model ensemble of palaeo-simulations is adequate for addressing at least some of these issues. For example, selected benchmarks for the LGM and MH are correlated to the rank of future projections of precipitation/temperature or sea ice extent to indicate that models that produce the best agreement with palaeo-climate information give demonstrably different future results than the rest of the models. We also explore cases where comparisons are strongly dependent on uncertain forcing time series or show important non-stationarity, making direct inferences for the future problematic. Overall, we demonstrate that there is a strong potential for the palaeo-climate simulations to help inform the future projections and urge all the modelling groups to complete this subset of the CMIP5 runs.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)221-250
Number of pages30
JournalClimate of the Past
Volume10
Issue number1
DOIs
StatePublished - Feb 5 2014

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climate
Last Glacial Maximum
Holocene
hindcasting
climate change
simulation
sea ice
climate modeling
CMIP
comparison
time series
methodology
modeling
temperature

All Science Journal Classification (ASJC) codes

  • Global and Planetary Change
  • Stratigraphy
  • Palaeontology

Cite this

Schmidt, G. A., Annan, J. D., Bartlein, P. J., Cook, B. I., Guilyardi, E., Hargreaves, J. C., ... Yiou, P. (2014). Using palaeo-climate comparisons to constrain future projections in CMIP5. Climate of the Past, 10(1), 221-250. https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-221-2014
Schmidt, G. A. ; Annan, J. D. ; Bartlein, P. J. ; Cook, B. I. ; Guilyardi, E. ; Hargreaves, J. C. ; Harrison, S. P. ; Kageyama, M. ; Legrande, A. N. ; Konecky, B. ; Lovejoy, S. ; Mann, M. E. ; Masson-Delmotte, V. ; Risi, C. ; Thompson, D. ; Timmermann, A. ; Yiou, P. / Using palaeo-climate comparisons to constrain future projections in CMIP5. In: Climate of the Past. 2014 ; Vol. 10, No. 1. pp. 221-250.
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abstract = "We present a selection of methodologies for using the palaeo-climate model component of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (Phase 5) (CMIP5) to attempt to constrain future climate projections using the same models. The constraints arise from measures of skill in hindcasting palaeo-climate changes from the present over three periods: the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) (21 000 yr before present, ka), the mid-Holocene (MH) (6 ka) and the Last Millennium (LM) (850-1850 CE). The skill measures may be used to validate robust patterns of climate change across scenarios or to distinguish between models that have differing outcomes in future scenarios. We find that the multi-model ensemble of palaeo-simulations is adequate for addressing at least some of these issues. For example, selected benchmarks for the LGM and MH are correlated to the rank of future projections of precipitation/temperature or sea ice extent to indicate that models that produce the best agreement with palaeo-climate information give demonstrably different future results than the rest of the models. We also explore cases where comparisons are strongly dependent on uncertain forcing time series or show important non-stationarity, making direct inferences for the future problematic. Overall, we demonstrate that there is a strong potential for the palaeo-climate simulations to help inform the future projections and urge all the modelling groups to complete this subset of the CMIP5 runs.",
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Schmidt, GA, Annan, JD, Bartlein, PJ, Cook, BI, Guilyardi, E, Hargreaves, JC, Harrison, SP, Kageyama, M, Legrande, AN, Konecky, B, Lovejoy, S, Mann, ME, Masson-Delmotte, V, Risi, C, Thompson, D, Timmermann, A & Yiou, P 2014, 'Using palaeo-climate comparisons to constrain future projections in CMIP5', Climate of the Past, vol. 10, no. 1, pp. 221-250. https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-221-2014

Using palaeo-climate comparisons to constrain future projections in CMIP5. / Schmidt, G. A.; Annan, J. D.; Bartlein, P. J.; Cook, B. I.; Guilyardi, E.; Hargreaves, J. C.; Harrison, S. P.; Kageyama, M.; Legrande, A. N.; Konecky, B.; Lovejoy, S.; Mann, M. E.; Masson-Delmotte, V.; Risi, C.; Thompson, D.; Timmermann, A.; Yiou, P.

In: Climate of the Past, Vol. 10, No. 1, 05.02.2014, p. 221-250.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

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AU - Annan, J. D.

AU - Bartlein, P. J.

AU - Cook, B. I.

AU - Guilyardi, E.

AU - Hargreaves, J. C.

AU - Harrison, S. P.

AU - Kageyama, M.

AU - Legrande, A. N.

AU - Konecky, B.

AU - Lovejoy, S.

AU - Mann, M. E.

AU - Masson-Delmotte, V.

AU - Risi, C.

AU - Thompson, D.

AU - Timmermann, A.

AU - Yiou, P.

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N2 - We present a selection of methodologies for using the palaeo-climate model component of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (Phase 5) (CMIP5) to attempt to constrain future climate projections using the same models. The constraints arise from measures of skill in hindcasting palaeo-climate changes from the present over three periods: the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) (21 000 yr before present, ka), the mid-Holocene (MH) (6 ka) and the Last Millennium (LM) (850-1850 CE). The skill measures may be used to validate robust patterns of climate change across scenarios or to distinguish between models that have differing outcomes in future scenarios. We find that the multi-model ensemble of palaeo-simulations is adequate for addressing at least some of these issues. For example, selected benchmarks for the LGM and MH are correlated to the rank of future projections of precipitation/temperature or sea ice extent to indicate that models that produce the best agreement with palaeo-climate information give demonstrably different future results than the rest of the models. We also explore cases where comparisons are strongly dependent on uncertain forcing time series or show important non-stationarity, making direct inferences for the future problematic. Overall, we demonstrate that there is a strong potential for the palaeo-climate simulations to help inform the future projections and urge all the modelling groups to complete this subset of the CMIP5 runs.

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Schmidt GA, Annan JD, Bartlein PJ, Cook BI, Guilyardi E, Hargreaves JC et al. Using palaeo-climate comparisons to constrain future projections in CMIP5. Climate of the Past. 2014 Feb 5;10(1):221-250. https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-221-2014