Validation of EPIC model simulations of crop responses to current climate and CO2 conditions: comparisons with census, expert judgment and experimental plot data

Norman J. Rosenberg, Mary McKenney Easterling, William E. Easterling, Kathleen M. Lemon

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

36 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

A crop simulation model must first be capable of representing the actual performance of crops grown in any particular region before it can be applied to the prediction of climate change impacts. Erosion productivity impact calculator (EPIC) simulations of crop productivity in the Missouri-Iowa-Nebraska-Kansas (MINK) region under the 1951-1980 climate were compared with the US Department of Agriculture's 'County Yield Estimates' data (averaged over 1984-1987), with expert estimates of yields for each 'representative' farm and with the results of agronomic experiments reported in the literature. Most EPIC-simulated yields agreed to within ±20% with USDA reported yields and expert estimates, although there were some outliers. EPIC-simulated yields, evapotranspiration and water use efficiency fell well within the range of experimental results. Perfect agreement with observed crop performance was not a requisite nor should it have been expected. We judged the EPIC simulations sufficiently reliable to justify use of the model in simulating the effects of climate change on crops.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)35-51
Number of pages17
JournalAgricultural and Forest Meteorology
Volume59
Issue number1-2
DOIs
StatePublished - Apr 15 1992

Fingerprint

Erosion Productivity Impact Calculator
expert opinion
census
simulation models
climate
erosion
productivity
crop
crops
USDA
simulation
climate change
crop performance
crop models
water use efficiency
evapotranspiration
outlier
farms
prediction
comparison

All Science Journal Classification (ASJC) codes

  • Forestry
  • Global and Planetary Change
  • Agronomy and Crop Science
  • Atmospheric Science

Cite this

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abstract = "A crop simulation model must first be capable of representing the actual performance of crops grown in any particular region before it can be applied to the prediction of climate change impacts. Erosion productivity impact calculator (EPIC) simulations of crop productivity in the Missouri-Iowa-Nebraska-Kansas (MINK) region under the 1951-1980 climate were compared with the US Department of Agriculture's 'County Yield Estimates' data (averaged over 1984-1987), with expert estimates of yields for each 'representative' farm and with the results of agronomic experiments reported in the literature. Most EPIC-simulated yields agreed to within ±20{\%} with USDA reported yields and expert estimates, although there were some outliers. EPIC-simulated yields, evapotranspiration and water use efficiency fell well within the range of experimental results. Perfect agreement with observed crop performance was not a requisite nor should it have been expected. We judged the EPIC simulations sufficiently reliable to justify use of the model in simulating the effects of climate change on crops.",
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AU - Lemon, Kathleen M.

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