Variance-based sensitivity analysis applied to the hydrogen migration and redistribution model in Bison. Part II: Uncertainty quantification and optimization

Zineb Aly, Albert Casagranda, Giovanni Pastore, Nicholas Brown

    Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

    1 Citation (Scopus)

    Abstract

    We demonstrate a global sensitivity and uncertainty analysis approach to quantify the impact of uncertainty in the hydrogen migration and redistribution models implemented in the U.S. Department of Energy Office of Nuclear Energy fuel performance code Bison. In this study, we provide a brief description of the physical phenomena studied and the sensitivity analysis methods used. To identify the key parameters related to the hydrogen migration and redistribution model in Bison, we study the impact of the variance of the model parameters on the amount of hydrides formed near the outer surface of the nuclear fuel cladding, where hydrides are more likely to form, under the normal operation conditions of a light water reactor. To quantify the impact of the input variance of the parameters on the output variations, we compute the variance-based indices (Sobol indices) and the Pearson correlation coefficients. The results of this work show that the activation energy for the terminal solid solubility of hydride precipitation, the hydrogen heat of transport and the activation energy for hydrogen diffusivity are the key parameters. An optimized set of these parameters was then determined as an attempt to increase the accuracy of Bison predictions by decreasing the root mean square error of the predictions versus experimental results, using a basin-hopping optimization framework.

    Original languageEnglish (US)
    Pages (from-to)478-489
    Number of pages12
    JournalJournal of Nuclear Materials
    Volume523
    DOIs
    StatePublished - Sep 1 2019

    Fingerprint

    sensitivity analysis
    Sensitivity analysis
    Hydrogen
    Hydrides
    optimization
    hydrides
    hydrogen
    Nuclear fuel cladding
    Activation energy
    Light water reactors
    Uncertainty analysis
    light water reactors
    activation energy
    Nuclear energy
    Mean square error
    root-mean-square errors
    nuclear fuels
    nuclear energy
    predictions
    Solubility

    All Science Journal Classification (ASJC) codes

    • Nuclear and High Energy Physics
    • Materials Science(all)
    • Nuclear Energy and Engineering

    Cite this

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    title = "Variance-based sensitivity analysis applied to the hydrogen migration and redistribution model in Bison. Part II: Uncertainty quantification and optimization",
    abstract = "We demonstrate a global sensitivity and uncertainty analysis approach to quantify the impact of uncertainty in the hydrogen migration and redistribution models implemented in the U.S. Department of Energy Office of Nuclear Energy fuel performance code Bison. In this study, we provide a brief description of the physical phenomena studied and the sensitivity analysis methods used. To identify the key parameters related to the hydrogen migration and redistribution model in Bison, we study the impact of the variance of the model parameters on the amount of hydrides formed near the outer surface of the nuclear fuel cladding, where hydrides are more likely to form, under the normal operation conditions of a light water reactor. To quantify the impact of the input variance of the parameters on the output variations, we compute the variance-based indices (Sobol indices) and the Pearson correlation coefficients. The results of this work show that the activation energy for the terminal solid solubility of hydride precipitation, the hydrogen heat of transport and the activation energy for hydrogen diffusivity are the key parameters. An optimized set of these parameters was then determined as an attempt to increase the accuracy of Bison predictions by decreasing the root mean square error of the predictions versus experimental results, using a basin-hopping optimization framework.",
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    Variance-based sensitivity analysis applied to the hydrogen migration and redistribution model in Bison. Part II : Uncertainty quantification and optimization. / Aly, Zineb; Casagranda, Albert; Pastore, Giovanni; Brown, Nicholas.

    In: Journal of Nuclear Materials, Vol. 523, 01.09.2019, p. 478-489.

    Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

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    AU - Casagranda, Albert

    AU - Pastore, Giovanni

    AU - Brown, Nicholas

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    AB - We demonstrate a global sensitivity and uncertainty analysis approach to quantify the impact of uncertainty in the hydrogen migration and redistribution models implemented in the U.S. Department of Energy Office of Nuclear Energy fuel performance code Bison. In this study, we provide a brief description of the physical phenomena studied and the sensitivity analysis methods used. To identify the key parameters related to the hydrogen migration and redistribution model in Bison, we study the impact of the variance of the model parameters on the amount of hydrides formed near the outer surface of the nuclear fuel cladding, where hydrides are more likely to form, under the normal operation conditions of a light water reactor. To quantify the impact of the input variance of the parameters on the output variations, we compute the variance-based indices (Sobol indices) and the Pearson correlation coefficients. The results of this work show that the activation energy for the terminal solid solubility of hydride precipitation, the hydrogen heat of transport and the activation energy for hydrogen diffusivity are the key parameters. An optimized set of these parameters was then determined as an attempt to increase the accuracy of Bison predictions by decreasing the root mean square error of the predictions versus experimental results, using a basin-hopping optimization framework.

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