TY - JOUR
T1 - What happens during flight to safety
T2 - Evidence from public and private real estate markets
AU - Boudry, Walter I.
AU - Connolly, Robert A.
AU - Steiner, Eva
N1 - Publisher Copyright:
© 2019 American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association
Copyright:
Copyright 2019 Elsevier B.V., All rights reserved.
PY - 2019
Y1 - 2019
N2 - Little is known about the performance of public and private real estate investments during and after flight to safety (FTS). We document that public real estate securities offer a partial hedge during FTS events. In addition, periods with multiple FTS events forecast slower economic growth, resulting in weaker long-run investment performance of real estate assets. Following FTS, the probability of a drop in real estate cash flows increases by up to 20%, with quarterly cash flow growth rates declining by as much as 27%. Private market real estate price appreciation over the four quarters following FTS is nearly wiped out.
AB - Little is known about the performance of public and private real estate investments during and after flight to safety (FTS). We document that public real estate securities offer a partial hedge during FTS events. In addition, periods with multiple FTS events forecast slower economic growth, resulting in weaker long-run investment performance of real estate assets. Following FTS, the probability of a drop in real estate cash flows increases by up to 20%, with quarterly cash flow growth rates declining by as much as 27%. Private market real estate price appreciation over the four quarters following FTS is nearly wiped out.
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85075251729&partnerID=8YFLogxK
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/citedby.url?scp=85075251729&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1111/1540-6229.12304
DO - 10.1111/1540-6229.12304
M3 - Article
AN - SCOPUS:85075251729
JO - Real Estate Economics
JF - Real Estate Economics
SN - 1080-8620
ER -