TY - JOUR
T1 - Where have all the pigs gone? Inconsistencies in pork statistics in China
AU - Yu, Xiaohua
AU - Abler, David
N1 - Funding Information:
We are grateful to the guest editor Dr. Michael Song and an anonymous reviewer for their constructive comments. This paper was presented at the 2013 FAO-OECD World Agricultural Outlook Conference in Beijing, Tsinghua University, and Renmin University of China. We thank Prof. Guoqing Zhao, Prof. Qingguo Meng, Dr. Shaojie Zhou, Dr. Bryan Lohmar, Dr. James Hansen, and other participants for their comments. Support from the project of RTG 1666 of German Research Foundation (DFG) , and the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Project ID: 70903039 and 71273006 ) are acknowledged.
Publisher Copyright:
© 2014 Elsevier Inc.
Copyright:
Copyright 2015 Elsevier B.V., All rights reserved.
PY - 2014/9/1
Y1 - 2014/9/1
N2 - Official agricultural statistics for China are subject to major inconsistencies and have long been questioned by researchers. The major problem with Chinese meat statistics is that reported meat supply is far greater than consumption, and this is particularly true for pork. Factors contributing to the gap between pork supply and consumption include production over-reporting, loss and waste in the pork supply chain, pork consumed away from home (FAFH), and a mismatch in the Chinese rural household survey between food and mouths (i.e. migrant workers and boarding students who are counted as rural household members but live in urban areas for much of the year). Our estimates indicate that over-reporting of pork production has declined substantially since 2003, but it is still significant and is the largest contributor to the gap between reported supply and consumption. Our estimates also indicate that pork consumption is significantly under-estimated because of FAFH and the rural mismatch between food and mouths. Reforms to the agricultural statistical system should be considered that increase the incentives to report accurate production statistics. Statistics are currently based on reports from local officials who have incentives to inflate production figures so as to improve their performance reviews and prospects for promotion, or they are overseen by local statistical personnel appointed by local governments.
AB - Official agricultural statistics for China are subject to major inconsistencies and have long been questioned by researchers. The major problem with Chinese meat statistics is that reported meat supply is far greater than consumption, and this is particularly true for pork. Factors contributing to the gap between pork supply and consumption include production over-reporting, loss and waste in the pork supply chain, pork consumed away from home (FAFH), and a mismatch in the Chinese rural household survey between food and mouths (i.e. migrant workers and boarding students who are counted as rural household members but live in urban areas for much of the year). Our estimates indicate that over-reporting of pork production has declined substantially since 2003, but it is still significant and is the largest contributor to the gap between reported supply and consumption. Our estimates also indicate that pork consumption is significantly under-estimated because of FAFH and the rural mismatch between food and mouths. Reforms to the agricultural statistical system should be considered that increase the incentives to report accurate production statistics. Statistics are currently based on reports from local officials who have incentives to inflate production figures so as to improve their performance reviews and prospects for promotion, or they are overseen by local statistical personnel appointed by local governments.
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U2 - 10.1016/j.chieco.2014.03.004
DO - 10.1016/j.chieco.2014.03.004
M3 - Article
AN - SCOPUS:84908317095
VL - 30
SP - 469
EP - 484
JO - China Economic Review
JF - China Economic Review
SN - 1043-951X
ER -